The World Wide Web has evolved from a basic communication tool to an essential component of everyday life in just ten years.
It has made a big impact on MBA education with online MBA courses, GMAT prep courses and MBA career services all easily accessible on the Internet. With today’s generation already spending more time interacting virtually than in reality, Web 3.0 may dilute the need for thought and have a dramatic effect on society. David Nelkin looks into the details.
“There is no need for any individual to have a computer in their home.”
- Ken Olson, 1977, President, Digital Equipment Corp.
“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.”
- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943.
In 1990, Tim Berners-Lee’s dream of connecting computers on a global scale became reality as the World Wide Web was born. By 1994 you could order from Pizza Hut online (the important things in life), whilst Hotmail was launched in 1996. Subsequently gobbled up by Microsoft, it had generated over 30 million users by 1999, and now has around 260 million (well, according to Wikipedia).
This demonstrates two things: the exponential growth of the Internet – which means that the potential intelligence within 2 or 3 years could be something we cannot even envisage at present, and also (and hence the example of Wikipedia), the way users have come to rely on what they are told. Having begun as a foundation for information sharing, the Internet now does practically everything for you.
So what lies ahead? As with many products, the Internet has developed versions. Web 1.0 was a new era of global communication whereby information could be passed almost instantly anywhere in the world, Web 2.0 is the present – a user-controlled and interactive environment, whilst Web 3.0 is the future. It is, as yet, undefined. What is unique about these versions is that they too are user-defined. They are not a physical entity. They don’t exist.
So let’s look at the reality of Web 3.0. We may as well speculate now, as even when this does come to ‘exist’ we won’t be any closer to knowing what it is.
I’ve already touched on the possibility of there being no virtual world, just reality. And we must now look the other way. You can already chat online, book tickets, book holidays, watch movies and run your business, so where to next? What aspects of the real world are missing? The 3D Web is one of the spoken of possibilities for the future. You can already see the tiles on your roof with satellite images in Google maps, so is the day when you can wander the streets, pop in to your local Blockbusters and rent movies which aren’t even at the cinema that far away?
What are the other possibilities? There is the Pervasive Web which will be everywhere we go. When your shaving foam is nearly empty and you have no spares in the bathroom cabinet, your computer will automatically find the best deal online for you, and have them delivered to your door. The Media Web will feature intelligent search from media files – you’ll be able to scan in a photo or an mp3, and will be presented with a list of related items from the same artist – gigs to book tickets for, music to download, blogs to read.
However, the widespread assumption is that it is the Semantic Web that will take hold. This was in fact, Tim Berner-Lee’s ultimate vision, and will be an evolution in intelligent technology. It would see search engines reading web pages for the user. The user – or at least the intelligent element of the user - would pretty much become defunct. An already emerging example is the BlueOrganizer from AdaptiveBlue (http://www.adaptiveblue.com/) – which ‘reads’ a web page, then finds other sites with related info.
Let’s look at a widely-used example, originally sourced in an article co-authored by Berner-Lee. We take imaginary girl named Lucy, whose mother has just been told by her doctor that she needs to see a specialist. "At the doctor's office, Lucy instructed her Semantic Web agent through her handheld Web browser," we read. "The agent promptly retrieved information about Mom's prescribed treatment from the doctor's agent, looked up several lists of providers, and checked for the ones in-plan for Mom's insurance within a 20-mile radius of her home and with a rating of excellent on trusted rating services."
Lucy's Semantic Web agent can also check potential appointment times against her mother's busy schedule, reschedule other appointments if need be, and more—all on its own, without help from Lucy. Just consider the endless possibilities. It could book your holidays for you or arrange a business trip. The question of whether or not everyone would want this control taken away from them is a different issue altogether.
With regard to the effect on humans, we are talking about the possibility of computers not just acting for you – that is already done – but thinking for you. So what function would the brain play and how could this impact on society? As mentioned earlier, I think you have to look at future generations here.
The one saving grace is that educational institutions and employers have jumped on the bandwagon and are also looking ahead - from the admissions process to the classroom to a career. Webcam interviews are now an option at a few business schools, and even compulsory at Georgia’s Terry College of Business, whilst virtual workplaces are now a reality in the classroom. Wharton, Harvard, Stanford have developed virtual online environments in line with their case studies. Professors can monitor every move to help with tuition – and also a great tool for employers to see if theory can be put in to practice as part of an extended interview process.
And we now have the Web 2.0 CV - Visual CV (www.visualcv.com). This brings the Internet to the web, and is being is being offered to MBA graduates and professionals, who can creative an interactive CV. “By turning the resume into an interactive, online multimedia document, you get a much more comprehensive view of a professional, which benefits professionals and employers,” says Clint Heiden, CEO and Co-founder of VIsualCV, Inc.
So future generations will be born into a world run by computers, where they don’t need to think. And imagine a society without thought. Some parts of the world would be the first to put their hands up and claim that this has already begun. Is this our future? And if it is, what future generations would intelligent technology breed? Where will the next generation of entrepreneurs come from? The cumulative effect becomes apparent - a gradual disintegration of the virtual and real worlds simultaneously.
The fact is that we can’t predict anything. We simply don’t know what lies ahead. These supposed geniuses somehow failed to predict that the year 2000 would follow 1999! The suggestions made above seem absurd, distant, and not very likely. Perhaps scary. But are they that far removed from the possible reality? As Stephen Fry said, “The Internet’s all around us and it connects us all, and therefore is as good or bad as humanity is.”