Do global trade figures signify a slowdown in globalization?
A further suggestion that the pace of globalization has slowed came this week, when the World Trade Organization (WTO) predicted that 2015’s growth in global trade would represent only a moderate rise on that of 2014.
Global trade grew by 2.8% in 2014 and WTO expects a 3.3% rise this year, a figure that is beneath the IMF’s predicted 3.5% growth in the global economy as a whole – an estimation that was also released this month.
If these figures are accurate it would be the fourth straight year in which global trade has grown at or below the rate of the global economy. However, pre-2008, global trade was often found to be growing at double the rate of the global economy, and was dubbed by many as an era of ‘hyperglobalization’.
Director-general at the WTO, Roberto Azevêdo, described the growth in recent years as a ‘gloomy picture’ and blamed the lingering effects of the financial crisis in a press release, but he also pointed to how he believed the situation can be improved upon.
“Trade can be a powerful policy tool to leverage economic growth and development. By withdrawing protectionist measures, improving market access, avoiding policies which distort competition and striving to agree reforms to global trade rules, governments can boost trade and seize the opportunities that it offers for everyone,” Azevêdo said.
However, the WTO also projected a tentative rise to 4% growth in global trade for 2016 – something that is only marginally larger than the IMF’s global economy growth estimation of 3.8%.
‘Subdued prospects’ trouble global economy
Meanwhile, growth in the global economy was described as "moderate and uneven" last week by the IMF’s managing director, Christine Lagarde. Olivier Blanchard, IMF research director and a macroeconomist on leave from MIT, wrote of “ageing and weak productivity” limiting growth potential in an analysis this week, while highlighting that “subdued prospects” that culminate in lower spending and growth are a more accurate description than talk of stagnation.
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